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Monday, January 28, 2008

Michael Cheney interviewed about delegate index study

UIS faculty member Michael Cheney was interviewed on Chicago station WBBM in January about his delegate index study project.

Latest results of this ongoing study indicate that Republican presidential candidate Rudolph Giuliani, who once held a wide lead, now trails John McCain in committed and estimated delegates going into the Florida primary on January 29 and the "Super Tuesday" primaries on February 5.

For Democrats, Sen. Barack Obama continues to close on Sen. Hillary Clinton, but she maintains a significant advantage.

The analysis, conducted by Cheney and graduate assistant Peter Weitzel at the U of I Institute of Government and Public Affairs, is based on the results of caucuses and primaries held so far and data from public-opinion polls. That data is applied to formulas designed to approximate delegate-selection rules in order to estimate the number of delegates that a candidate might secure. Delegates chosen in the Wyoming Republican caucus and the Michigan Democratic primary, which were not sanctioned by the national party organizations, are not included in the analysis.