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Monday, January 28, 2008

Michael Cheney interviewed about delegate index study

UIS faculty member Michael Cheney was interviewed on Chicago station WBBM in January about his delegate index study project.

Latest results of this ongoing study indicate that Republican presidential candidate Rudolph Giuliani, who once held a wide lead, now trails John McCain in committed and estimated delegates going into the Florida primary on January 29 and the "Super Tuesday" primaries on February 5.

For Democrats, Sen. Barack Obama continues to close on Sen. Hillary Clinton, but she maintains a significant advantage.

The analysis, conducted by Cheney and graduate assistant Peter Weitzel at the U of I Institute of Government and Public Affairs, is based on the results of caucuses and primaries held so far and data from public-opinion polls. That data is applied to formulas designed to approximate delegate-selection rules in order to estimate the number of delegates that a candidate might secure. Delegates chosen in the Wyoming Republican caucus and the Michigan Democratic primary, which were not sanctioned by the national party organizations, are not included in the analysis.

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Cheney discusses delegate index project

UIS faculty member Michael Cheney discussed his delegate index project on Chicago station WBEZ on December 27. Cheney said his research indicates that, if party caucuses and primary elections were held today, Hillary Clinton and Rudolph Giuliani would have substantial leads in convention delegates for their respective parties. The analysis was conducted by researchers at the U of I Institute of Government and Public Affairs and uses poll data and formulas designed to approximate the complicated rules by which delegates are assigned to candidates after primary voting. Poll results for all states voting on or before February 5, 2008, commonly known as "Super Tuesday," were analyzed in this study. The results will be updated weekly.